Murphy builds on his earlier Cascading Expert Failure model (Murphy 2023) by introducing uncertainty to show how expert failure can arise through the opinion transmission process.  Using the Tullock/Downs authority leakage model, he constructs a simple probability model and applies it to Cascading Failure to answer the question: how likely is it that an expert's message gets scrambled in the process of communication from the expert to the nonexpert?  Furthermore, he discusses what institutional structures can reduce this likelihood.